2019 Mini Market Update (Crested Butte & Gunnison)

Since July is winding up, I’m looking at home & condo pricing for the 2nd Quarter of 2019 compared to the 2nd Quarter of 2018. Along with this, we take a look at what has happened historically, and how housing affordability has changed since the 1960’s.

Hi everyone, Heather Connor here and welcome to our Tuesday Facebook live show. I just want to say first, it’s Tuesday July 23rd and I am back and hopefully with sound today. Last week I lost my voice and then yesterday we had a big announcement that we shared with you guys and for some reason that video that we sent out didn’t have any audio so we had to rerecord that. So today just give me a thumbs up in the comments below if you can hear me, my voice is back and hopefully audio is working for you guys today too.

So a couple of things here, first of all summer has been really variable in weather this season, but, undeniably gorgeous with the super bloom that’s happening. I hope everyone is enjoying all the free concerts and festivals that July has to offer. Food and Wine Festival is starting this week, July 25th to 28th, and also the band Reckless Kelly will be performing at the Alpine Glow concert on July 29th. I will actually be there supporting our local Rotary organization, so be sure to stop by the sandwich area and say hi if you happen to be at Alpine Glow that day. PS, the band is supposed to be phenomenal so make sure that you get a seat early.

Now today I wanted to talk about an article that was in the Realtor Magazine about the decline of housing affordability since 1960. I thought this article was interesting and wanted to mention a few key points from it. So first, the median home prices have increased a hundred and twenty-one (121%) percent nationwide since 1960. Median gross rent has increased 72% since 1960 and that’s more than double the growth in adjusted income. Median home prices have risen four times the rate of household incomes since 1960. Now let’s take a look here, financial experts consider a healthy price to income ratio to be about a 2.6 nationwide. The current ratio is 3.6 which means that 3.5 years of household income is needed to purchase a home, this is very city to city of course. One of the most affordable cities is listed as Toledo, Ohio at a 2.14 ratio. One of the least affordable cities is San Jose, California at 9.69. Now with that in mind, CNBC is reporting that the housing supply had a slight uptick recently, but they are expecting that supply to flatten in the next few months and actually hit an all-time low this fall. They say that housing sales peaked in late 2017 and has stagnated since then, with small bright spots happening in specific markets.

Now of course housing supply, demand, and affordability are all very localized issues. So we’re going to look at a few local numbers here in Crested Butte to see how we compare to these nationwide numbers. Now really quick as a funny side comment, as we review these numbers here with you guys, my real estate friends that are in larger cities are extremely surprised when I tell them our sales numbers here in Crested Butte. We are a very small town and as local realtors, we are used to the small inventory and sales activity compared to the size of our market, it’s actually quite normal. However, compared to primary markets and larger cities our monthly sales can compare to what happens in one day in some other markets.

So we pulled the number of new listings for the second quarter of 2018 and 2019 for single-family homes in all of Crested Butte as well as the city of Gunnison. Listings for single-family homes in Crested Butte are up 23% from last year, but sales are about the same. Condo townhome listings have decreased by 31%, but again sales in 2019 were fairly close to sales in 2018. In Gunnison the number of new listings has decreased by seven properties for single-family and six properties for condo townhome. We have three less single-family home sales than last year, but demand for condo townhomes remains steady. So this is a very small glimpse right here of what we’re comparing, this is actually a really small glimpse as you guys can see of our micro market. We’re not comparing every quarter of every year, but just the second quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2019. Now these two quarters are definitely in the same ranges, that you might say, that this quarter saw less new inventory in 2019 than in 2018. I think it’s fair to say that we’re sitting at a very level and even pace for a number of units sold while valuation is steadily increasing. Now yesterday I posted some big news about Vail going under contract to purchase Peak Resorts and this could definitely affect sales and values in the area but it’s a little too soon to tell. That sale is supposed to close this fall so we’ll be keeping an eye on this transaction and how it potentially affects our valuations here locally. If you’re curious about how all of this information affects the value of your home and you have considered selling, give me a call or text!

I’ll see you guys next time. So thanks again for joining and we’ll see you next week!

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